展博天下 之 展博金句

企業需要勇於承擔的人。當老是在開會，通常就是因為負責做決定的人，不願意或沒能力負責。「民主」或「多聽聽意見」，只是這種人常用的藉口。(IKEA創辦人Ingvar Kamprad - 一位家具商的誓約)

Can Hong Kong trust this man ?

Q&A: Hong Kong’s New Leader Is a Divisive Figure, but Aims to Build Bridges

Leung Chun-ying, often referred to as C.Y. Leung, is Hong Kong’s incoming Chief Executive. It’s a pressure cooker of a role that puts him at the helm of the freest and most international city of the world’s most populous nation, during times of economic uncertainty to boot. The 57-year-old former surveyor faces a daunting task. Immense income inequality, ruinously high property prices, an entrenched business oligarchy and a sophisticated population that aspires to greater political participation than the present system allows for: these are just some of the issues and stumbling blocks that could thwart his stated aim of bringing greater prosperity, equality and social cohesion to a feisty, semiautonomous region of 7 million. And he must do it under the scrutiny of both Beijing’s unblinking gaze and Hong Kong’s notoriously cutthroat press.

Leung’s humble beginnings — he is a police constable’s son — have endeared him to large sections of the Hong Kong community, but there are many who resent his close ties to Beijing and he has even been accused of being a crypto-communist. He is also embroiled in a scandal over unauthorized alterations to his luxury home on Victoria Peak, reports of which first surfaced in local press on June 19. Residential refurbishments may not sound like the stuff of political controversy, but when Leung’s poll rival Henry Tang confessed, at the height of his campaign, to illegal modifications to his home, it cost him the trust of a public that demands its leaders abide by the same onerous red tape as everyone else. Although Leung’s renovations were not as substantial as Tang’s, their existence is seen as a baffling lapse of judgment on Leung’s part, and critics are already calling for his resignation.

In an exclusive interview with TIME’s Zoher Abdoolcarim, Liam Fitzpatrick, Joe Jackson and Vanessa Ko, which took place on June 5, this often divisive figure reveals his plans for greater harmony.

What are the three things Hong Kong needs most?

Community building, a broader outlook on the future and a slightly more proactive role of government in economic development. I want to build the community across the various social strata, and also across the various ethnic groups. That would be the first thing. Secondly, we must put short-termism behind us. We have never looked long term — never in the history of Hong Kong. We must ask ourselves [for future generations], What should the coastline and topography of Hong Kong look like? Reclamation, opening up the countryside, infrastructural projects, community facilities, so on. We should start doing that kind of planning. Thirdly, my government will adopt a progrowth policy, to the extent of investing in enterprises. We should use a small part of our fiscal reserves to kick-start certain industries. We also need to make social investments. We need to plan for Hong Kong as an aging society in 10 or 20 years time. Another form of social investment would be cleaning up the environment.

You talk about building a community, but surely Hong Kong already has a sense of community?

Unlike other British colonies — ex-colonies — we did not become a new nation. And therefore there wasn’t a new national identity. There wasn’t a new citizenship. But I think Hong Kong needs to pull everyone together so that we do have this community spirit and that we share in a common fate, a common destiny.

Big business is concerned about interventionist government. What would you say to them to reassure them?

My policies are aimed at facilitating growth of Hong Kong’s overall economy for the benefit of both big and small to medium-size enterprises. I’m not trying to tip the playing field in favor of any group.

Does more affordable housing play a role in your vision of a more equitable society?

More affordable and more comfortable. The average unit size is too small to match Hong Kong’s state of economic development, and people are crying out for more elbow room. It applies not just to our housing stock. It applies to our workplaces. It applies to our hospitals, schools and so on. We have a very low standard of space per capita. Everywhere you look, people are crying out for more space.

There is a sense among some sectors of society that under you freedoms are going to be curbed in Hong Kong — that you are a stalking horse for China. Tell us what your response is.

I’d like to prove people who are apprehensive about me and my government wrong again, much in the same way as they have been proved wrong in the last 15 years. Before 1997, some people were publicly claiming that they would be put behind bars [after the resumption of Chinese sovereignty], or not be allowed to return if they left. Some people even feared that certain books or magazines would not be read in Hong Kong and that the Chinese government would somehow monitor the Internet. They’ve been proved wrong, and I can prove them wrong again.

Under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong is required to enact antisubversion legislation, which critics say will curb freedoms. Do you intend to see this legislation through?

We need general acceptance in Hong Kong before any law enacted in accordance with Article 23 has any meaning. It’s not on my agenda.

How do you make the bridge between Hong Kong and China stronger?

I coined a phrase some 16 or 17 years ago, nei jiao. It means internal diplomacy. If we were a country, which we are not, China would be the single most important element in our foreign policy architecture. It would be even more important than Malaysia is to Singapore. But we are not an independent country, and therefore this is not foreign relations; it is internal diplomacy. In our interface with the mainland, many things are conducted like they are conducted in foreign relations. The relationship must be a managed relationship. [At present] we are not doing this internal diplomacy properly. We need to start with the [mainland Chinese] people to explain Hong Kong’s case to them, and Hong Kong’s role in the country.

What is Hong Kong’s role within China?

We are still a model in ways economic and noneconomic. When I say things noneconomic, I would include governance — and rule of law is a key element. Many, I sincerely believe they tell the truth, say that they still look to Hong Kong for inspiration.

Why is it that there’s a certain section of society that, no matter what you do or say, does not trust you and even fears you? How are you going to win them over?

I shall do more reaching out, do more open communication. It is important. I can’t shake the hands of everyone in Hong Kong and I can’t speak face to face, eye to eye with everyone, but I shall try to do my very best. Why? Two things. Hong Kong people have always had, and for good historical reasons, a healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to their political leaders. Secondly, perhaps people see me as not a typical Hong Kong person. In my early days, as a young graduate, I spent most of my spare time running up and down the country giving lectures for free, paying for my own train fares, airfares to share what I had learned. [I’m] not a member of the Communist Party, but I’ve spoken at Communist Party cadre schools, talking to mayors and ministers about land and housing matters and how free-market forces allocate the use of land and housing. I’m also not typical in the way that I don’t have a foreign passport and never have. I never left Hong Kong — never emigrated, never looked to emigrate — and all my three children were born in Hong Kong. All these are not typical for someone of my background.

Low-income people tend to like you or at least want to give you a chance. Members of the elite seem to be more distrustful. Is it because you are the son of a policeman?

I hope not. Many people in the elite group still don’t believe in statistics. They don’t believe that we have abject poverty in Hong Kong. They don’t believe that half of the workforce in Hong Kong earns no more than 11,000 Hong Kong dollars a month [$1,400]. When I was supporting legislating for a minimum wage using facts and figures, many people in the elite said, “C.Y., the figures must be wrong because I don’t know anyone who earns less than $10,000.” The so-called elite in Hong Kong has what we call “Central District values,” and I think Hong Kong would do a lot better if everyone could just travel out a bit and see how, not just the other half, but probably the other 75%, lives.

If you had to name one single thing in your background that drives you, could you?

We were living in policemen’s married quarters in 1966. My father was turning 65, and a few years before that we came to realize that as soon as he retired, we would have to move out of the quarters. And public-housing policy at that time was such that retired officers were not allowed to apply for public housing. So there were two options. One was to hang on for as long as we could and protest against the eviction, which most of my neighbors did. And the other option was to fend for ourselves. My mother mobilized the entire family, and we worked around the clock at home piecing together plastic flowers and toys. I was 10 or 11 in those days, and I carried packs of materials back home from the factory — a 20- or 25-minute walk as a young boy. Nowadays it’s called child labor. But the family made as much as my father’s salary, which was 300 Hong Kong dollars a month [nearly $40 in today's exchange rate]. So by the time my father retired, we had enough money to pay for a small 450-sq.-ft. unit in [the once largely working-class district of] Kennedy Town. My father’s colleagues marched up to Government House to petition for their housing needs. We didn’t do that. [We were] self-reliant.

What would you be doing if you weren’t Chief Executive?

I’d probably be somewhere in England now, where my children are — we have three children, all at university, the eldest doing Ph.D. research in stem cells, two others doing their first degree. My wife’s in England, she goes there a lot because home is where the children are. She’s a lawyer by training. But two years ago, a junction suddenly appeared on the road. I was working at this professional consultancy looking after the Asia-Pacific region. And they said, “C.Y., we’d like you to take over and be the next chairman of the board of a global company.” Tempting. I would probably have a bachelor flat somewhere in London and I would buy a small working farm somewhere in the West Country, and I’d work Monday to Friday in London and spend time on the farm with the family on weekends. Heaven on earth. But if I turned into that junction, it would be — as far as my public service in Hong Kong is concerned — the point of no return. So I made the decision [to run for office]. It was the call of duty.

What is the most challenging issue facing the Hong Kong government?

Disengagement with the people. People are disenfranchised because they don’t vote, they are disengaged because we don’t talk to them, and we don’t listen, not directly. There is a sense of being disowned, and therefore, there’s a deep sense of distrust between the people and the government, or by the people of government. I want to bridge that gap and I want to re-engage with the people.

Isn’t it ironic that a sometimes divisive figure has been tasked with healing a divided city?

It’s a fair point. It’s a very good way of putting it. But we have to start somewhere.

展博天下 之 展博講波

一陣間有"歐債打比"  歐洲國家盃8強 德國 vs 希臘 23/6 2:45 

作為歐元區龍頭既德國, 應對靠借貸度日拖垮全球經濟及金融市場既歐豬國家逐一教訓,

德國已在分組賽教訓了葡萄牙, 依家八強要教訓希臘, 跟住四強意大利, 然後決賽教訓埋西班牙~

純粹個人意見, 不代表本研究部立場

展博天下 之 大市看法

重回萬九!

“大市看法~本研究部認為大市進入本年底部萬八點...反彈指日可待~” 2012/5/28

一如所料,大市由萬八回升至萬九,言而市況仍然未明朗,未來希臘大選,歐債,中國經濟增長放援等等...大把問題俾大戶震倉~不要緊; 暴雨過後總見陽光~

待續...

展博天下 之 大市看法

“滾滾長江東逝水，浪花淘盡英雄。

是非成敗轉頭空。

青山依舊在，幾度夕陽紅。

白髮漁樵江渚上，慣看秋月春風。

一壺濁酒喜相逢。

古今多少事，都付笑談中。”

明 楊慎《二十一史》彈詞第三章《說秦漢》

開場詞「滾滾長江東逝水」——調寄《臨江仙》

大市看法~本研究部認為大市進入本年底部萬八點…反彈指日可待~

點歌仔: 三國主題曲

Super 4 不枉

作曲：鄧智偉
填詞：張美賢
編曲：Johnny Yim
監製: 鄧智偉

水滔滔 天蒼蒼
一借東風頃到燒光
樹靜雲淡也是虛罔
撓起弓箭為著射穿怯慌
對酒當歌醉飲星光
相看一刻哪需多講
讓情義竭盡釋放 在那盡頭地方
活著是 生不辜負厚望
又或是 死得轟烈跌盪
用沉著對付兇悍
用血肉成就絕地的曙光
患難是 一起經歷碰撞
在烽火中受仰望
淚流 被遍地花葬 身再傷
不枉
水影酒色花香
雙鬢依稀蓋掩風霜
動盪時候會迷方向
以心攻佔不需劍起弩張
對酒當歌打開天窗
心照不宣各種悲傷
就贏盡漂亮一仗 萬世盛傳迴響
活著是 生不辜負厚望
又或是 死得轟烈跌盪
用沉著對付兇悍
用血肉成就絕地的曙光
患難是 一起經歷碰撞
在烽火中受仰望
淚流 被遍地花葬 身再傷
不枉
活著是 生不辜負厚望
又或是 死得轟烈跌盪
用沉著對付兇悍
用血肉成就絕地的曙光
患難是 一起經歷碰撞
在烽火中受仰望
淚流 被遍地花葬 身再傷
不枉

好書介紹："The Start-up of You" by Reid Hoffman (co-founder of LinkedIn) and Ben Casnocha

Our country faces enormous challenges. The path to the Hong Kong Dream has changed. We wanted to focus on what individual professionals can do to survive and thrive in a flat world. The premise of the book is that all of us are entrepreneurs of our own lives. We must act as CEO of our careers, take control of our professional future, and become globally competitive.

Not only can anyone be an entrepreneur, but they must be. Even you! Not everyone should start companies, but everyone must be the entrepreneur of his or her own life. The skills people need to manage their careers are akin to the skills of entrepreneurs when they start and grow companies.

For example, entrepreneurs can both be persistent on a plan and flexible when conditions change. They take intelligent risk. They build networks of allies and tap those networks for intelligence on what's happening in the world. Silicon Valley's most innovative entrepreneurs possess unique skills--you can learn them and apply them, no matter your profession.

Being an entrepreneur isn’t really about starting a business.  It’s a way of looking at the world: seeing opportunity where others see obstacles, taking risks when others take refuge. Whatever career you’re in or want to be in­ The Start-Up of You holds lessons for success.

後記: 這本書竟和本研究部的工作觀不謀宜合，每個人都須要成為自己的企業家，經營個人能力和事業，即使現在沒在開公司；也應該讓企業這個賺錢的系統，成為自己生活的一部分。 企業家精神不但求存---更要不斷進步；不斷適應挑戰，不斷尋找機會，要完全了解自己的「個人品牌」....同時要學懂善於與人合作，著眼建立“網絡”(Networking) 而非“關係”(Guanxi）,值得香港的打工仔思考，改變處世之道和心態～
註:本推介並不代表本研究部立場~

要有面對戰爭既心理準備

今世既所謂乜鳩經濟增長,實乃借住透支黎假繁榮,乜撚野都係借貸谷靚條數,大至一國gdp,小至平民買樓,一撚樣...

任何透支行為,都只係將未來既勞動力提早折現,折完現,洗撚埋,遲早都係要還...

二次大戰後全世界百廢待興,要死既都死晒,繼之而來既係一批新力軍,結果當然係經濟十分好景,一片欣欣向榮.但百廢待興都有興完一日,被戰爭摧毀既野要補已補晒,由西方先進國家到東方落後國家,物質一波一波補充,補完仲要經濟增長,點搞?就玩透支,玩浪費?

以前一部電視雪櫃閒閒地玩三幾十年,而家三幾年,難道今時今日既科技不如前?顯然唔係,而係因為以前做得太好,要買電視既都買晒,咁d廠點增長?出新機, 新科技,你就想買,丟左舊果部.然後新機特鳩登set好三幾年自動燒撚左,可能燒既只係一粒野,成部野原料都新新淨淨,但你侷住又要買,生意長做長有,透 過無盡既浪費去維持經濟增長!

然後新機又呢又路,多多野玩,價錢就賣你貴d,你見貴唔想買,就同你分期付款,即係將你之後既勞動力折現,變相同佢打埋工,又維持埋經濟增長?

但下下將將來既錢折現納入今日條數,到將來又點?現實話比我地聽,天下冇野係永遠向上,亦冇野永遠向下,透支同浪費都玩撚完時,仲有咩招維持經濟增長?冇!

<結果就只有戰爭一途>

古往今來,世界歷史都作如是觀.搞撚到最後唔掂檔,就會想拖,拖長佢慢慢諗計,但諗條春咩,到最後真係唔掂檔,就唯有用戰爭黎解決.戰爭可以掠奪他國,用 他國既物資黎平衡自己就黎玩撚完既經濟;戰爭可以死人,死一大堆人就再次進入百廢待興期,失業率冇晒;戰爭可以轉移視線,本來平民因為經濟衰退食都冇得食 就黎反檯,戰爭令到所有人突然收爹,變成只關心國家打贏定打輸!

有睇開呀叔以前寫既野都知我認為呢幾年戰事係不可避免,中東戰線伊朗再難打最終必打,此乃美國行左廿鳩幾年既棋,絕冇可能臨門一腳釋迦牟尼再世慈悲為懷放 你一馬;亞洲戰線美國圍堵中國越箍越緊,早兩日再放菲律賓同越南出黎咬,如無意外跟住果招就係叫埋印度由西南咬;歐洲戰線已比睪盛為首既冷坦iban十鳩 前前埋落炸彈等爆,隨時咸家富貴.表面睇,美國好似玩撚晒!

早前《留意呢兩個月共產黨有冇大鑊野》提過解放軍出聲明唔尋常,文中已講明共產黨認為黎緊係"人心不穩"時期,以胡錦濤當年鎮壓西藏既個性以及鄧小平六四後要隔代欽點佢,都說明出世局現大變動時胡將會行高壓政策穩住陣勢,香港急屎咁趕住立網上23條就係一個側面反映!

共產黨近30年奉行鄧小平韜光養晦政策,明知唔夠美國揪凡事忍讓等機會.但近日包括南海同東海方面都突然有略強硬表態,尋日4月22中國同俄羅斯聯合軍 演,而且規模有史以來最大,今日4月23則北韓突然吠兩聲話要搞撚掂南韓,各種跡象顯示胡錦濤搞撚掂上海幫後,開始係各方面有企硬之勢,有蓄勢待發之態!

北韓條肥懵鳩隨時連自己國家有幾多部門都未搞清,各部門呀頭邊個搭邊個都唔叉知,突然扮乜撚野勁?以當今局勢推算,極有可能係已同共產黨有檯底協議,甚至 連俄羅斯都有份.美國搵菲律賓同越南吠中國,中國就搵北韓咬美國.世界大棋局,就係2012展開,股市樓市仆柒街指日可待!

展博天下 之“盛女” 背後

電視節目《盛女愛作戰》的包裝很有話題性，可是被訪者(包括個別嘉賓)卻不明白，她們的真性情表現只能跟朋友關上門講，公開說了，會引起男觀眾反感，又不討好女觀眾.....

本研究部認為，這節目明顯在設假議題，說來說去，就是同一班專事女性消費的推銷員，不斷挑起男女衝突，從中設假議題，達到「以時事手法推銷商品及服務」，包括什麼「人生教練」、「形象指導」、「妳總是有問題必須要幫襯的醫學美容」等等等等，把女人描繪得人人有問題，很悲慘，而把所有商業推銷，都預設為「因為男人想要女人乜乜乜，所以妳們就要乜乜乜」…..

不斷作不必要的消費，妳永遠不達標、妳要不斷改善這樣哪樣、妳要不斷幫襯、不斷求助，另一方面是售貨員把貨尾重新包裝，然後放進散貨場高調推銷，趁買家未考慮得清楚就把貨品賣出，貨物出門、恕不退換。主角是幾位女士嗎？不，是看售貨員如何把這些「賣剩蔗」塞到客人手上，他們才是主角。

老實說如果單身主義成主流，那麼甚麼speed date、婚姻介紹所及近年流行的wedding planner都要吃西北風了，而少人結婚了，酒樓、酒店、婚紗攝影、蜜月旅行等的生意自然都少了，牽連甚廣，所以這些企業必定聯合起來，向你promote「結婚」這個商品。

展博天下 之 港股短評

港股今日出現觸目既黃金交叉(10SMA over 250SMA)，同時接近本研究部預期既反彈上限 (約近二萬二點)，是大牛市重臨或大反彈完結呢? 很快會知道各答案; 大家可拭目以待....

展博天下 之 2012 政經分析

通識題: 馬英九, 唐英年, 奧巴馬 有何共通點?

今年係壬水龍年, 也是全球58個國家都有選舉既年份, 正所謂 “水無常形” .由政局交替而衍生出來的經濟問題, 往往是難以預計的…

紐約星宿財富顧問公司(Constellation Wealth Advisors)的首席投資長山姆卡茲曼(Sam Katzman)說：「現在還有很多不確定性。近期的市場反彈很好，但能不能持續？」

本研究所撰文時馬英九已經順利當選, 而香港則在情人節是香港特別行政區第四屆行政長官提名開始… 唐唐會是香港人心裡未來特首的理想情人嗎?

本研究已經下注口水戰認為唐英年同奧巴馬能夠順利當選…

在當今政局勢頭穩定作為選舉工程的基本條件， 政策面沒有重大改變的大前提下，股市可望表現先高後低的格局… 有人問幾時先買貨? 本研究認為不用急於一時買貨… 年底有望回到萬六; 然後再上… 再形成大形上落市格局…當然個別主題股份仍然可以炒作，惟只可中短線操作。

展博天下 之 點歌時間

劉威煌 (Ryan Lau) - 潛伏（電視劇《真相》主題曲）

作曲：葉肇中

填詞：鄭櫻綸

編曲：葉肇中

監製：鄧智偉

主唱：劉威煌

場地配人選與事情　前後配合給你合適的反應

潛伏眼淚掩蓋實情　誰犯錯誰都會辯駁擾人視聽

有一雙眼做證　錯覺作弄眼睛　誰看清

記憶各種層次　連貫著更多懷疑

猶豫像不止　將傷痛劃破展示

哪一層次　情結讓痛苦蔓延

誰又在飾演　真相交錯未顯現

內心的碎片　沒有誰看見

潛伏愛情隱蔽未明　沉著佈局一切並不需考證

能用眼淚洗脫罪名　蒙著眼迷戀悔恨最擾人視聽

口號

各類統計 (資料截至2011年12月31日)

商品統計

經濟指標 

 環球股市統計

希臘債務問題(最新情況)

  受到援助金發放進度受阻的影響，希臘再度吸引市場矚目。歐盟委員會1月5日宣佈，基於去年援助貸款發放時間推遲，希臘從歐盟（EU）和國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)獲得緊急貸款的整體時刻表將被推遲3個月。

    一筆總值50億歐元的援助金原定於去年12月發放，但最終將延至今年3月發放。而下一筆總值100億歐元的援助金原定於今年3月發放，將順延至6月發放。不過，若檢查小組認為希臘政府就緊縮改革的進度不符合發放援助的標準，所有的援助計畫都會被推遲。

    希臘政府發言人則警告，若收不到國際貨幣基金、歐洲聯盟以及民營銀行提供的紓困金，恐需退出歐元區。

根據    現有的資料，主要的結論包括：

l          1) 從目前希臘的孳息曲綫來看與數周前並無明顯分別，市場對希臘債券違約的預期並未出現大變化。

l          2) 希臘國內絕大部份民眾仍希望留在歐元區內，以避免國家經濟出現毀滅性的打擊。故此削減赤字的行動最終將獲得民眾支持，獲得通過。

l          3) 希臘退出歐元區對本身經濟傷害很大，但對整體歐元區卻不算系統性風險。

l          4) 研究部認為雖然目前市場就歐債問題的焦點在於西班牙和意大利，但是希臘的局勢短線仍可能對市場造成一定的衝擊。整付的客戶應注意市場風險，投資策略方面應該仍以保守為主。

投資者應該悲觀還是樂觀?

《華爾街日報》 --心靈可以把地獄變成天堂，也可以把天堂變成地獄。──英國詩人約翰彌爾頓

在聖經舊約中，雅各的兒子約瑟受到多位哥哥的嫉妒，被他們設局推入大坑等死。不久，正好一支商隊路過，有人搭救了他，但將他賣到埃及為奴。在埃及，他又遭 人嫉妒，受陷害身陷囹圄。約瑟有一萬個理由悲觀、絕望。然而，他沒有。在監獄中，他學會了解夢，並因此受到法老的賞識，當上了全權的大臣。後來約瑟寬恕了他幾位哥哥的罪惡，並對他們說，從前你們是要來害我的，但神的意思原來是好的，成就了我今日的光景。

原來，約瑟所遭遇到的都是上天派來的天使，只不過其中有些戴著魔鬼的面具而已。

「悲觀」雖然不是一個金融投資方面的專業術語，卻是在財經新聞和投資分析中最常見到的詞之一。從某種角度看，看待世界的哲學只有兩種：樂觀主義哲學與悲觀主義哲學。看待投資的哲學也只有兩種：樂觀主義投資哲學與悲觀主義投資哲學。

對投資者而言，到底應該是樂觀，還是悲觀？有人或許會試圖用辯證法來回答這個問題：該樂觀時樂觀，該悲觀時悲觀；既不要樂觀，也不要悲觀；既要樂觀也要悲觀。但這是辯證法還是詭辯法？是讓人更明白還是更糊塗？辯證法沒有能夠提供有效的、可行的答案。

樂觀主義分兩種：一種是一廂情願的、無可救藥的樂觀主義；一種是審慎的、謙卑的、保守的樂觀主義。極端的樂觀主義與悲觀主義相通，前者往往是後者的序曲。樂觀與悲觀之間的選擇是一個常識性的選擇，如果你不知道該樂觀還是悲觀，那你看看周圍的人際環境，你是願意與樂觀的投資者共事，還是願意與悲觀的投資者共事？你願意投資對其前景樂觀的公司，還是對其前景悲觀的公司？你是喜歡周圍的人總是面帶微笑，還是總是愁眉苦臉？

可取的選擇，一定是願意與審慎的樂觀主義者共事。你的同事們也是如此，只有你是審慎的樂觀主義者，他們才願意與你共事。

有人可能會說，不是我想悲觀，但是所發生的事情，的確無法讓我樂觀，面對悲觀的事實，我們必須實事求是。但是，保守主義都是所謂的唯心主義者，認為態度比事實重要。態度是心靈的粉刷，這把粉刷把事實刷成甚麼顏色，事實就是甚麼顏色。

一個人是否樂觀，與所發生的事之間的關系，並沒有想象的那麼大。因為，你去找甚麼，你就能找到甚麼。你去街上找垃圾，肯定能找到，拾荒者在街上找能換錢的廢品，從不空手而回；你要找死胡同，死胡同就在眼前；你要去找通衢，通衢也在眼前。你去找悲觀，悲觀唾手可得；找樂觀，樂觀隨處都是。甚至在人性中，你想找甚麼，也能找到甚麼。所以，千萬不要去假定整個世界在處處與你作對，假定你一生下來，頭上就陰雲密布。

樂觀的人關注的是機遇，悲觀的人關注的是障礙。為了證明自己正確，樂觀的人期待成功，悲觀的人期待失敗。價值投資者把自己的洞察力都用去找價值，自信而樂觀地去找。樂觀主義身處隧道的盡頭，仍然在尋找光線。悲觀主義把自己看作是結果，認為自己是被決定的，樂觀主義把自己看作是原因，認為自己能決定結果。不要糾纏於甚麼發生在你身上，而是你能讓甚麼發生。

古羅馬哲學家塞涅卡（Seneca）說過：心要讓眼瞎的時候，眼是甚麼都看不見的（Eyes will not see when the heart wishes them to be blind.）。一個悲觀的人，常常無視樂觀的東西，更不會去把悲觀的變成樂觀的。他總是能找到許多悲觀的理由和事實。

我們不得不承認，其中許多理由和事實常常是成立的。大多數人很唯物、實事求是，把難題當難題，把機會當機會。但是，有少數人，他們很唯心、很樂觀，拒絕實事求是，偏偏要把難題看作成難逢的機會，並最終成功地把它們變為機會。一個悲觀的人是把機會變成難題的人，一個樂觀的人是把難題看成機會的人。對樂觀者來說，不論多麼悲觀的事，如果要從中尋找樂觀，不僅能找到，而且會不斷湧現。

一個人能控制的不是讓甚麼發生，不讓甚麼發生，而是對所發生事件的態度。如果你樂觀，你就能找到希望；如果你悲觀，你就失望，乃至絕望。樂觀是務實的，而悲觀是不務實的，務虛的。悲觀不是鼓勵而是阻止你去採取積極有效的應對措施，會讓你猶豫不決，浪費時間，浪費機會。而這兩個，都是每個人所浪費不起的。

樂觀積極的態度能產生積極的能量。樂觀主義者，無視悲觀的，尋找並盯住樂觀的，進而把悲觀的變成樂觀的。面對難題，是集中在難上，還是集中在解決方案上？如果發生了甚麼，冷靜下來認真評估，創造性地思維，採取合理的措施，爭取好的結果，每一次禍事都會讓樂觀主義者登上一個大台階。1989年，巴菲特在一封信中寫道：我足夠樂觀地期望，我生命中最有意義的篇章還有翻開。現在看來，巴菲特的樂觀是有道理的，價值投資者的樂觀也是有道理的。

衡量一個人、一個投資者的智慧與境界，就是看他能否從萬事萬物中找到好的、令人樂觀的一面。如果你是審慎而堅定的樂觀主義者，那就不妨進行長線的價值投資；如果你是個悲觀主義者，你只能去進行短線的投機，因為機會稍縱即逝，陷阱無處不在。審慎的樂觀是最簡單也最富饒的投資智慧，比投資技能重要千萬倍。它不僅讓你成功，而且能救命。炒股失敗跳樓的絕不可能是價值投資者，當然也不是樂觀主義者。

英國詩人彌爾頓說過：心靈可以把地獄變成天堂，也可以把天堂變成地獄。簡而言之，即使是地獄，也要把它變成天堂。理性的樂觀主義者準備好最壞的，爭取最好的。前者讓你理性，後者讓你樂觀。

我個人的信條是，當發現有魔鬼從後門溜進來的時候，一定要先確定，他們是不是面戴魔鬼面具的天使。與期待天使相比，我更期待戴著天使面具的魔鬼。遇見天使，這本身就是一件好事。而遇見戴著天使面具的魔鬼，我必須把這件事變成好事，這樣，我的成就與成就感也大得多。在証券市場，熊市對悲觀主義者來說絕對是魔鬼，而對樂觀的價值投資者來說，不過是戴著魔鬼面具的天使。

展博天下 之 恒指國指走勢分析

恒指昨天跌144至18,817，國指昨天跌103至10,229，成交601億。恒指曾跌逾300點後，最終回升守在50天移動平均綫(18,781)上。跌市理由仍為歐債危機有擴散迹象，不過需留意市場的關注點已由歐豬五國移至歐洲其他較發達國家及美國銀行業，下行風險增加不少。昨天大市已搖搖欲墜，加上美股大跌，市場氣氛再趨負面，需提高警覺。

昨日有 20隻恒指牛證被回收，當中回收價為18,700至18,750最重倉。昨天18,200至18,600的牛證數量有所增加，亦為最重倉區，可作參考。

歐洲多項拆息高企，3個月美元Libor升至0.48厘，為近4個月高位；金融機構周三寄存於歐洲央行的隔夜存款金額為2,160億歐元，比上日增加260億歐元，亦遠高於今年以來平均的730億歐元，銀行缺乏互信下，信貸市場明顯緊縮。

西班牙標售36億10年期新債，平均收益率從5.43%升至為6.975%，迫近7%警戒線，為1997年以來最高位；投標僅得1.5倍認購，令二手市場的10年債息急升至6.7厘。法國拍賣近70億歐羅的中短期國債，其中包括33.32億歐羅5年期國債，平均利率為2.82%，比上次的2.31%多，認購比率亦只得1.7倍。此形勢下，大部分歐洲國家與德國的國債息差持續擴大。

雖然越來越多數據顯示美國經濟正加強，美股道瓊斯及標普500卻分別跌1.13%及1.68%，標普500更跌破過往兩週徘徊的低位。除市場擔心美國銀行業外，下周三前民主共和兩黨能否達成額外削赤逾萬億美元的細節亦是關注點。

若市場斷定歐美經濟及金融業系統性出問題，股市還有不少下行風險。

香港有飯開?

本港的堅尼系數（貧富懸殊差距）長期處於0.4的警戒線之上，今年更去到0.533，「榮登」世界第一。

其實我很幸福,眼看身邊的女性朋友太多都只是煩惱如何瘦身節食,

真正的"節時縮食"我們都沒有試過。

吃不飽的滋味，當然不好受，但要承認自己吃不飽，更令人難堪。

坐在電腦前看OPEN RICE食評在討論要去哪食個飽的你我,

和坐在餐桌前低頭想如何把碟上的鹹魚分三餐來吃的他們,

這就是現在的香港。